No, the 2016 SMU Mustangs are nowhere near as good as the 2015 Houston Cougars. However, a strong parallel exists between Thanksgiving weekend of last year and this year for Navy football. The stakes aren’t exactly the same, but they are significant, and as this team prepares for the new and uncharted territory of what awaits in December, it’s well worth unpacking the task which lies ahead for the Midshipmen.
Last year, the reality of a difficult scheduling situation was especially painful for Navy football to bear.
On a short week, Navy had to follow a road trip to Tulsa with a road trip to Houston to play the best team in the AAC in 2015, Tom Herman’s Cougars. Moreover, in addition to the Thanksgiving Friday assignment, kickoff time was at 11 a.m. local time in Texas. The Tulsa game the previous Saturday was a night game. On several levels, Navy was done a disservice by schedule makers and ESPN, the latter of which should have found a way to carve out an early-evening time slot for that Houston contest. Navy’s offense started well, but as the whole of the game unfolded, the Midshipmen lost steam. Darn straight they were tired, boxed into a difficult scenario not of their own making. Navy lost its opportunity to win the AAC West on the final weekend of November.
Yes, Houston was excellent in that game and during last season. The Cougars very possibly would have beaten Navy with two weeks’ rest or with an extra day of rest (a Saturday game that week) or a night kickoff on Friday. Yet, it remains unfair that Navy had to play its most important non-Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy game of 2015 under such circumstances.
This year, Navy faces a moment which is not as unfair, but this trek to Texas on the final weekend of November remains daunting.
In 2016, Navy won’t have to play on a short week. It gets a Saturday slot against SMU. The kickoff isn’t at noon Eastern, but 3:30. The previous week’s game against East Carolina was not a pure night game, but a 4 Eastern game. Moreover, that slot was initially supposed to be a bye week, but Hurricane Matthew got in the way.
(Side note: It’s probably a great thing for Navy that it didn’t have to play a Thursday night game at ECU just five days after beating Houston. This was so much better, and the 66-point outburst by the offense affirmed as much.)
Best of all, Navy has already won the AAC West. This trip to the Lone Star State is not win-or-bust as far as a division title is concerned. That’s a huge source of relief… and yet within that relief lies the seeds of a letdown and a loss.
Would a loss be terrible for Navy? No, not terrible, just mildly to moderately annoying… at least if Western Michigan runs the table and goes 13-0.
However, if WMU loses once and Wyoming locks Boise State out of the Mountain West title chase by winning this Saturday night in New Mexico, Navy is poised to grab the Group of Five New Year’s Six bowl bid in the Cotton Bowl. That’s the value of this SMU game.
What’s tricky is that with an AAC division title in hand, Navy has a game to play the week after this one, with Army in the background on December 10. The Midshipmen should pursue a win here as vigorously as they would any other game, but just the same, they don’t want to get roped into a three-overtime game or reveal plays they might be saving up for Temple (or South Florida, but it’s known that Temple is the likely opponent on December 3).
Navy doesn’t need a perfect performance to beat SMU, but it can surely use an efficient one. Getting the intended result – not looking ahead to the AAC title game – is the foremost objective, but playing a shorter game with fewer snaps will not hurt the cause. Is “threading the needle” too dramatic a phrase? Perhaps, but it does succeed in stressing the need for Navy to win this game with minimal stress and strain.
A key point of focus: Win the first quarter.
Pete Carroll and many other football coaches are fond of saying, “Can you win a game in the first quarter? NO. You win in the fourth quarter!” Football coaches love to play up the need to dominate for 60 minutes. If Navy needs 60 minutes to finish off SMU, so be it. However, Navy did not get out of the blocks quickly against East Carolina. It has not started well against Army in recent years. Being able to dash out of the starting gate will serve this team well in the weeks ahead.
What a quick start will achieve is more than just better odds of a win. Navy’s offensive line won’t have to pass protect as much; run blocking is always the preferred form of work for an offensive line if it has any choice in the matter. With the clock running more, Navy will endure fewer snaps. Leading by 10 to 14 points early in the second quarter makes it a lot more realistic for the Midshipmen to run down the play clock and – at least in spots – choose to slow the tempo of the game.
A perfect example: On third and inches, when a quarterback sneak is the obvious play, Navy doesn’t need to worry about catching a defense off guard with tempo. It can safely drain the play clock within five seconds and then get the first down. When down 10 points (as Navy was against ECU, 17-7), that’s not nearly as easy to do, especially if it’s the situation Navy faces in the second half.
Yes, of any game remaining on the 2016 schedule, this is the least important, especially if Western Michigan wins out. A conference title and a win over Army would make 2016 a smashing success. Nevertheless, the Cotton Bowl is a realistic goal. That game happens to be not very far from the SMU campus.
If SMU wants to return to the Dallas metropolitan area in roughly five and a half weeks, an efficient win over the Mustangs – with a quick start, fewer snaps, and less strain placed on the defense – would be a great first step in this home stretch of a 2016 season which has already exceeded expectations.
